For the first time since it was established in 1929, the PRI is in opposition at the federal level, a reality that has proved difficult for most of its members to accept. Detached from presidential power, the PRI is struggling to reinvent itself. Having lacked any coherent ideology for decades, the party became a means of winning and exercising power, and largely followed the direction set by the president. In addition, since the early 1980s a clear separation developed between the party’s traditionalists, mostly positioned in the legislature and local government, and its technocrats, a minority who dominate the federal executive.

Following the loss of the presidency, a battle for control of the party ensued, with the traditionalists emerging as the dominant force. In an election open to all citizens on February 24th 2002, Roberto Madrazo, a former presidential pre-candidate and governor of Tabasco, and Elba Esther Gordillo, the de facto leader of the powerful Sindicato Nacional de Trabajadores de la Educacion (SNTE, the National Union of Teachers), were elected as party president and secretary-general, respectively. They narrowly defeated Beatriz Paredes (party leader in the Chamber of Deputies) and Javier Guerrero (former deputy for Chihuahua). Popular among its grassroots, and with a long career as a PRI member, Mr Madrazo has a populist touch, but he is also considered to be a pragmatist. Several governors and legislators, however, have already evolved as important figures with authority, and Mr Madrazo frequently finds it difficult to present the party as having a united front.

Ideologically, the PRI is evolving into a centre-left party with a social-democratic agenda. It is likely to hold together, aiming to gain a majority in the Chamber of Deputies in 2003 and regain the presidency in 2006. Currently it has 17 of the 31 state governorships and the biggest parliamentary groups both in the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate.

The PRD was formed in 1989 by supporters of Mr Cardenas’s 1988 presidential bid. After his defeat in the 1994 election, the party suffered a temporary decline. Between 1996 and 1999, under the leadership of Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, the party’s electoral fortunes improved, partly owing to the significant protest vote against the government during the economic crisis. When Mr Cardenas won the mayorship of Mexico City in 1997, the PRD became the second most important force in Congress. The party diversified its base by embracing disaffected PRI members, winning over states that had been considered impregnable. The PRD made important gains by opposing almost any measure proposed by the government. However, in the 2000 presidential election, Mr Cardenas managed only a distant third place as many of his supporters defected to vote for Mr Fox. The party also suffered losses in Congress.

Mr Cardenas still enjoys a significant following. This is set to continue during the tenure of Rosario Robles, who was elected PRD president on March 17th 2002 in an election heavily marred by irregularities. With its 50 deputies and 16 senators, the PRD can (as it did when approving the budget and tax code for fiscal years 2002 and 2003) help the PAN to achieve a majority in Congress. However, Ms Robles is generally opposed to supporting the government because of its free-market orientation.

A three-party system has evolved since 1997, with five other small parties being represented in Congress. The most important among them is the PVEM, which benefited greatly from having supported Mr Fox as a presidential candidate (in terms of seats in Congress gained from the coalition it formed with PAN). However, it openly broke ranks with the government in September 2001, mainly because it did not get any cabinet positions, not even the Ministry of the Environment. Three more political parties obtained legal registration from the Instituto Federal Electoral (IFE, Federal Electoral Institute) in June 2002, bringing to 11 the number of parties that will compete in the July congressional election.

Mexico has an important rebel group, the Ejercito Zapatista de Liberacion Nacional (EZLN), which is based in the state of Chiapas. Other relatively small guerrilla movements have at times emerged, but have either fizzled out or been deactivated by government forces. No formal peace negotiations have taken place since 1996 as both the government and the EZLN have been unwilling to give ground on certain questions. The EZLN, cornered militarily, has a small political base but a formidable propaganda machine. In September 1997 a political front, the Frente Zapatista de Liberacion Nacional (FZLN), was established to mobilise national support for the Zapatistas, but it will not participate in elections. As soon as he entered office, Mr Fox tried to re-start peace negotiations. He removed the army from several areas, freed EZLN prisoners and sent a constitutional initiative to Congress to increase the autonomy of indigenous groups. Congress ultimately passed a much watered-down version of the initiative that proved unacceptable to the EZLN, which then refused to enter into peace talks.

Neither the church nor the military are major participants in politics. Since gaining constitutional recognition (and the right to vote) in 1992, Roman Catholic Church leaders have attempted to influence policy, particularly on education, but have been rebuffed by politicians, even by those from PAN (which has traditionally strong church ties). The military has also become more prominent. The institutional loyalty of the armed forces was tested in the 2000 political transition, but proved to be strong when Mr Fox appointed a minister of defence of his choosing over several more senior generals.