Outline
1)
Leadership transitions
2)
Thinking about Russia
a)
Diversity
b)
Poverty
c)
The Environment
d)
Key Questions
i)
Will Putin, et al. be able to strengthen and stabilize the Russian
state?
ii)
Are democratization and legitimization possible?
iii)
Will economic troubles doom political reform?
iv)
How will global forces — especially economic ones — shape a new Russia?
3)
The Evolution of the Russian State
a)
The Broad Sweep of Russian History
b)
The wrong revolution: Russia was not what Marx predicted because of
i)
backwardness
ii)
failed reform
iii)
the weak state
iv)
Lenin and revolution
c)
Stalin, Terror, and the Modernization of the Soviet Union
d)
Industrialization
e)
Foreign Policy
f)
The Purges
g)
Khrushchev, Brezhnev, and the politics of decline
4)
The Soviet State and Its Collapse: The Gorbachev Years
a)
The Party-state
b)
Reform
i)
Glasnost
ii)
Democratization
iii)
Peristroika
iv)
Foreign policy
c)
Crisis and collapse
5)
Birth Pangs
6)
Political Culture and Participation
d)
Political culture
e)
Political Parties and elections
i)
elections
ii)
parties today
(1)
Communist Party of the Russian Federation (CPRF)
(2)
Unity
(3)
Yaboloko
(4)
Union of Right Forces
(5)
Fatherland-All Russia
(6)
Liberal Democrats
iii)
balance sheet
7) The Russian
State
a) A presidential
republic
b) The Oligarchs
c) Parliament
d) The bureaucracy
e) The judiciary
f) Federalism
g) The military
h) The Bottom Line
8) Public Policy
i) The economy
j) Foreign policy
k) The United
States
9) Feedback
Commentary
Perhaps more than any country describe in this
text, individual political figures matter in contemporary Russia.
Historically, you can use the names of Lenin, Stalin, Khrushchev,
Gorbachev, and Yeltsin to tell the story of modern Russia. There may be
more names to take into account than there are for China (Mao Zedong,
Deng Xiaoping, and Jiang Zemin), but the Soviet Union had a 30-year head
start on Communism in China. The first Key Question in this chapter asks
whether President Putin will be able to maintain an effective Russian
state. Thus, there's another biography to consider. These biographies
ought to be considered in the context of the communist state, in which
these men lived most of their lives.
Knowing the importance of personal leadership
provides some clues about how Russian government and politics work
today, but there are other forces at work too. Ethnic politics may often
be overshadowed by economic crisis, but seem ready to burst into open
conflict in many places. Chechnya is only the most violent example. In
addition, Russian nationalism is still a strong force, as is the desire
for the custodial aspects of Communism.
A second key question asks about the relationship
between economic fate and political fate. The transition away from a
command economy is a difficult one, and Russia is suffering during the
transition. Exacerbating the problems is the role played by the
so-called “Russian mafia.” Whether organized criminals are as organized
in Russia as in other places, the level of illegal activity appears
high, and the links to legitimate business and political activity seem
powerful.
From the perspective of the Western industrialized
democracies, a viable political party system seems to be a key to the
success of democratic regimes. The personalized "floating parties" of
Russia don't look like the successful systems of the West. However, the
stabilizing blocks of public opinion may be precursors to a future, more
stable party system.
Internal forces are not the only ones at work. If
environmentalists are correct, Mother Nature or Gaia is going to come
calling on the Russians soon and demand an accounting (if that hasn’t
already happened around Chernobyl). The disaster around the Aral Sea may
be the next site of nature's "demand for payment." Russia’s neighbors
may well be stand-ins for Mother Nature. Norway is already demanding
changes in the nickel smelter on its northern border with Russia.
If global forces aren’t making environmental
demands, they are making economic ones. And those demands will probably
require more than cash. They will require more restructuring.
Controversy seems to follow most of them, so you will be able to find
examples reported in the media regularly. Western cultural influences, from
missionaries to New York advertising firms appear everywhere, especially in
European Russia. Foreign political and economic advisors, some academics
from the U.S. work for government bureaus and politicians. The International
Monetary Fund demands market reforms and offers loans to prop up the economy
and the government. But, what demands can be met? What demands will be met?
Putin's response has been to try to strengthen the state. Critics have
argued that he's weakening democracy in the process.
It’s a given that popular sentiment was never given
much thought in the Soviet Union. The U.S.S.R. has been described as a state
without a demand structure in any part of its culture. If that’s true, how
will all the nations of Russia respond to the attempts to create a market
economy and democratic political system.